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Freedom of Expression - an underappreciated civil liberty

April 12th 2022, by Michael Ohler


What this study is about

February 24 2022 was a brutal wakeup call. Under our eyes, things have degraded over the best part of a generation. With 160+ countries on Planet Earth, a “monitoring system” is required. Interestingly, data that could be used for such a purpose are made available in high quality by the “State of Democracy” platform. Here I scratch the surface of what is possible with these data: I merely use the index on Freedom of Expression. We have taken too lightly that people in one country were and are deprived of this crucial civil liberty over the best part of a generation.



1 Waking up to a different world


The world has been shocked by the morning news on February 24th. Probably, even in 10 years from now, we are still going to remember where we were and what we did when we learned that Russia had just invaded Ukraine.

A few days prior, on Feb 21, Vladimir Putin had convoked the Security Council of the Russian Federation to a televised inquiry. In an Orwellian scene, this group of advisers is kept at a huge distance from their superior. Sitting on their chairs like schoolchildren they are asked to comply with a preconceived decision. If you haven’t done yet, check out the questioning of Sergey Naryshkin, chief of the Foreign Intelligence Service.

How catastrophically wrong the decision to invade turned out to be is becoming ever more obvious as the war drags on: It surfaces unsuspected weaknesses in the Russian army; its “glorious fellows” suffer losses across all ranks, not seen since the war in Afghanistan; it imposes economic hardship on ordinary people in Russia and a pariah status on Russia as a country; and there is strong evidence that it turns ordinary Russian conscripts into war criminals while imposing death, destruction and suffering on the Ukrainian people.

Nobody knows whether Putin truly expected his troops to be greeted with Russian flags or whether he really believed the Ukrainian government would crumble within days. But how then, over three weeks into the war, on March 18th, could the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow be filled by thousands of flag-waving enthusiasts? Were they freely expressing their opinion? It is hard to grasp what is going on – and even harder how the situation could have degraded to this point. How come not even trusted advisers can express their views? And why, on March 14th, does Marina Ovsyannikov consider necessary to express hers through an audacious stunt on Russian TV: “They are lying to you”? She has risked her career, family, and more.



2 Appreciate democracy from a customer perspective


A country’s multi-faceted and complex evolution over more than two decades can’t be understood by looking at a single aspect. Yet, winding back the memories of the past 20 years, a crucial civil liberty stands out: the freedom of expression.

True, freedom of expression isn’t but one aspect and is denigrated by the likes of Putin. The functioning of democracy also is under constant scrutiny: how citizens like their elected government; what they think of parliamentary debates in general and of recent laws on the shape of cucumbers to Corona-measures to climate taxes.

In times like these, we need to look at governance from a “customer-perspective”. We must consider what people should be able to expect from their rulers - and hold them accountable. In that regard, the clarity provided by the “State of Democracy” is impressive. I take the freedom to reproduce their “conceptual framework” here. In case that is not ok, I appreciate a hint and remove the following artwork:

Source: https://www.idea.int/data-tools/tools/global-state-democracy-indices



3 Freedom of Expression as civil liberty


According to this framework, democracy is composed of the following attributes:

Civil liberties are one sub-attribute of Fundamental Rights. What is not shown in the framework is that sub-attributes are composed of “indices” and “sub-indices”. For example, civil liberties are themselves composed of

“Freedom of expression” on its turn is built from the following “sub-indices”:

The framework creates clarity on a concept as complex as democracy. In my view, the true value is provided by the availability of high-quality data for ANY attribute, sub-attribute, index and sub-index, and this for 160+ countries and for every year since 1975, put together with an impressive diligence. What a source for insights! The following discussion can only scratch the surface of what is possible.



4 Freedom of expression and the special case of Russia


We look at the evolution of the freedom of expression for Russia (in black) against the background of all other countries (grey). During the times of the Soviet Union, the index picks up already in the mid-1980ies – by when Gorbachev became General Secretary of the Communist Party. A decade later, and with the arrival of Vladimir Putin, a steady decline over the best part of a generation sets in - Step by step, one of the best-educated societies is systematically deprived of the freedom to express and share their ideas. We plot the evolution in Russia on the background of all other countries.

Figure 4.1: Freedom of expression in Russia



5 How is the rest of the world doing?


With this evolution, and the catastrophic events of 2022, one can ask what other societies are going through a similar experience. I have taken the time-series data for all countries and checked for statistically significant decline in the freedom of expression between 2010 and 2020 (at the time of this writing, 2020 is the last year for which data are available). The following graphs shows the five countries with the steepest decline over that period. As a comparison, I also include the evolution in Russia:

Figure 5.1: Stongest increases in Freedom of Expression


Obviously, all six countries enjoyed a significant improvement before or during the early 1990ies – and experienced a degradation during the 2010s. Would these be independent events? Most dramatic appears the evolution in Poland. Looking at the speed of decline, Russia only follows on rank 35, after Greece, Australia, the Czech Republic, and Cameroon.


The following graph shows the index for the freedom of expression in 2020 (a long bar corresponds to a higher freedom). A significant between 2010 and 2020 is coded as green, a significant decrease as red and when the trend is not statistically significant the bar is colored in grey.Things aren’t going into the right direction… At the end of this report, you find the raw data for this previous graph.

Freedom of Expression, all countries

Figure 5.2: Freedom of Expression, all countries


When you crunch the numbers for longer and stare at the results, you can easily get depressed. Let’s also see the evolution of the countries with the most significant improvement between 2010 and 2020:

Figure 5.3: Stongest increases in Freedom of Expression



6 Freedom must be used so it can grow

We have merely looked at data here, data on the freedom of expression. Freedom is like oxygen: you only notice it’s there when you are being starved of it. Different from oxygen in a small room, though, the freedom I use to express my thoughts is not rivalling, it is growing your’s. However, if I hold my thought because I think it might not be well-received, i.e.: if I self-censor, I am forcing you and everyone else to take greater risks at speaking up. Marina Ovsyannikova had to hold up her sign because a letter to the editor or a blog-entry would have been meaningless. Many others self-censor. To maintain and to grow freedom, it must be used, and often.

We are now seeing how toxic propaganda, namely nationalist propaganda, can be. One would hope, though, that it only becomes dangerous in an environment of a poor freedom of expression: when people are allowed to speak up there will always be voices that can set in motion self-healing mechanisms. These voices must be heard and be given the freedom to express themselves. Because it is the freedom of expression and the resulting dialogues that allow society, organizations, teams, and leaders to ponder different perspectives and views. The freedom of expression significantly reduces the risk of catastrophic failure.




7 Attachment: raw data for the bar-chart above

Table 7.1: Status and trend for Freedom of expression in 2020
Country Freedom of expression Regression coefficient Annual rate of change P-value for rate Speed Trend Statistical Significance
Burundi 0.275 0.704 -0.031 0.001 0.031 Degradation Very.Strong
Poland 0.583 0.742 -0.029 0.001 0.029 Degradation Very.Strong
Yemen 0.284 0.714 -0.029 0.001 0.029 Degradation Very.Strong
Turkey 0.287 0.851 -0.027 0.000 0.027 Degradation Very.Strong
Serbia 0.411 0.872 -0.025 0.000 0.025 Degradation Very.Strong
Philippines 0.462 0.769 -0.024 0.000 0.024 Degradation Very.Strong
Brazil 0.563 0.905 -0.022 0.000 0.022 Degradation Very.Strong
United States 0.741 0.741 -0.021 0.001 0.021 Degradation Very.Strong
Egypt 0.301 0.721 -0.020 0.001 0.020 Degradation Very.Strong
Nicaragua 0.309 0.667 -0.019 0.002 0.019 Degradation Very.Strong
Tanzania 0.410 0.899 -0.019 0.000 0.019 Degradation Very.Strong
India 0.512 0.743 -0.018 0.001 0.018 Degradation Very.Strong
Pakistan 0.494 0.716 -0.018 0.001 0.018 Degradation Very.Strong
South Sudan 0.299 0.503 -0.018 0.022 0.018 Degradation Strong
El Salvador 0.462 0.592 -0.017 0.006 0.017 Degradation Very.Strong
Hungary 0.543 0.968 -0.017 0.000 0.017 Degradation Very.Strong
Mauritania 0.543 0.608 -0.016 0.005 0.016 Degradation Very.Strong
Spain 0.727 0.747 -0.016 0.001 0.016 Degradation Very.Strong
Bulgaria 0.567 0.872 -0.016 0.000 0.016 Degradation Very.Strong
Slovenia 0.557 0.598 -0.015 0.005 0.015 Degradation Very.Strong
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.462 0.904 -0.015 0.000 0.015 Degradation Very.Strong
Mali 0.585 0.711 -0.015 0.001 0.015 Degradation Very.Strong
Lithuania 0.703 0.772 -0.015 0.000 0.015 Degradation Very.Strong
Tajikistan 0.287 0.834 -0.014 0.000 0.014 Degradation Very.Strong
Costa Rica 0.761 0.743 -0.014 0.001 0.014 Degradation Very.Strong
Croatia 0.610 0.812 -0.014 0.000 0.014 Degradation Very.Strong
China 0.240 0.878 -0.014 0.000 0.014 Degradation Very.Strong
Benin 0.488 0.371 -0.013 0.047 0.013 Degradation Strong
Mozambique 0.462 0.666 -0.013 0.002 0.013 Degradation Very.Strong
Cambodia 0.354 0.761 -0.013 0.000 0.013 Degradation Very.Strong
Greece 0.682 0.887 -0.013 0.000 0.013 Degradation Very.Strong
Australia 0.794 0.765 -0.012 0.000 0.012 Degradation Very.Strong
Czech Republic 0.779 0.529 -0.012 0.011 0.012 Degradation Strong
Cameroon 0.409 0.845 -0.012 0.000 0.012 Degradation Very.Strong
Russia 0.396 0.663 -0.011 0.002 0.011 Degradation Very.Strong
Colombia 0.496 0.724 -0.010 0.001 0.010 Degradation Very.Strong
Zambia 0.494 0.604 -0.010 0.005 0.010 Degradation Very.Strong
Japan 0.689 0.873 -0.010 0.000 0.010 Degradation Very.Strong
Chad 0.434 0.560 -0.010 0.008 0.010 Degradation Very.Strong
Thailand 0.371 0.237 -0.010 0.129 0.010 No.Trend Insignificant
Bahrain 0.273 0.261 -0.009 0.108 0.009 No.Trend Insignificant
Romania 0.663 0.556 -0.009 0.008 0.009 Degradation Very.Strong
Ukraine 0.571 0.408 -0.009 0.034 0.009 Degradation Strong
Bangladesh 0.395 0.632 -0.009 0.003 0.009 Degradation Very.Strong
Uganda 0.442 0.816 -0.008 0.000 0.008 Degradation Very.Strong
Bolivia 0.496 0.785 -0.008 0.000 0.008 Degradation Very.Strong
Venezuela 0.396 0.673 -0.008 0.002 0.008 Degradation Very.Strong
Somalia 0.442 0.791 -0.007 0.000 0.007 Degradation Very.Strong
Republic of the Congo 0.317 0.694 -0.007 0.001 0.007 Degradation Very.Strong
Moldova 0.609 0.402 -0.007 0.036 0.007 Degradation Strong
Nepal 0.592 0.581 -0.007 0.006 0.007 Degradation Very.Strong
Kazakhstan 0.374 0.669 -0.007 0.002 0.007 Degradation Very.Strong
Papua New Guinea 0.593 0.686 -0.006 0.002 0.006 Degradation Very.Strong
Panama 0.648 0.790 -0.006 0.000 0.006 Degradation Very.Strong
Finland 0.864 0.499 -0.006 0.015 0.006 Degradation Strong
Denmark 0.950 0.573 -0.006 0.007 0.006 Degradation Very.Strong
Ghana 0.684 0.506 -0.006 0.014 0.006 Degradation Strong
Singapore 0.386 0.698 -0.006 0.001 0.006 Degradation Very.Strong
Germany 0.794 0.874 -0.006 0.000 0.006 Degradation Very.Strong
Cyprus 0.690 0.687 -0.006 0.002 0.006 Degradation Very.Strong
Indonesia 0.529 0.405 -0.006 0.035 0.006 Degradation Strong
Chile 0.727 0.319 -0.005 0.070 0.005 Degradation Low
United Arab Emirates 0.326 0.852 -0.005 0.000 0.005 Degradation Very.Strong
Kenya 0.630 0.595 -0.005 0.005 0.005 Degradation Very.Strong
Albania 0.543 0.469 -0.004 0.020 0.004 Degradation Strong
Botswana 0.635 0.348 -0.004 0.056 0.004 Degradation Medium
Niger 0.631 0.173 -0.004 0.203 0.004 No.Trend Insignificant
Qatar 0.334 0.386 -0.004 0.041 0.004 Degradation Strong
Taiwan 0.722 0.137 -0.003 0.262 0.003 No.Trend Insignificant
Vietnam 0.354 0.273 -0.003 0.099 0.003 Degradation Low
South Africa 0.632 0.348 -0.003 0.056 0.003 Degradation Medium
Slovakia 0.768 0.088 -0.003 0.377 0.003 No.Trend Insignificant
Sweden 0.851 0.269 -0.003 0.102 0.003 No.Trend Insignificant
Austria 0.817 0.148 -0.003 0.242 0.003 No.Trend Insignificant
Lesotho 0.584 0.091 -0.003 0.368 0.003 No.Trend Insignificant
Paraguay 0.618 0.201 -0.003 0.167 0.003 No.Trend Insignificant
Ivory Coast 0.503 0.110 -0.002 0.320 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Lebanon 0.512 0.089 -0.002 0.372 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Nigeria 0.647 0.512 -0.002 0.013 0.002 Degradation Strong
Estonia 0.826 0.215 -0.001 0.151 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Saudi Arabia 0.257 0.109 -0.001 0.321 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Algeria 0.411 0.027 -0.001 0.628 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Iceland 0.781 0.056 -0.001 0.482 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Kyrgyzstan 0.543 0.016 -0.001 0.712 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Kosovo 0.627 0.021 -0.001 0.668 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Equatorial Guinea 0.318 0.056 -0.001 0.485 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Azerbaijan 0.367 0.053 -0.001 0.496 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Uruguay 0.858 0.250 -0.001 0.117 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Cape Verde 0.657 0.015 -0.001 0.721 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Burkina Faso 0.657 0.011 -0.001 0.763 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Norway 0.816 0.015 -0.001 0.721 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Liberia 0.678 0.005 -0.001 0.842 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Guatemala 0.568 0.011 -0.001 0.755 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Madagascar 0.507 0.006 -0.001 0.827 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Timor-Leste 0.607 0.001 0.000 0.920 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Luxembourg 0.742 0.040 0.000 0.555 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Ireland 0.816 0.005 0.000 0.844 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Guinea 0.494 0.001 0.000 0.944 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Jordan 0.442 0.483 0.000 0.117 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
North Korea 0.057 0.559 0.000 0.117 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Netherlands 0.771 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Namibia 0.649 0.000 0.000 0.988 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Angola 0.462 0.004 0.000 0.850 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Belarus 0.248 0.000 0.000 0.948 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Rwanda 0.318 0.002 0.000 0.904 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Syria 0.155 0.001 0.000 0.924 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Mongolia 0.686 0.090 0.000 0.370 0.000 No.Trend Insignificant
Latvia 0.770 0.015 0.001 0.720 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Montenegro 0.543 0.062 0.001 0.460 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
France 0.836 0.163 0.001 0.218 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Honduras 0.575 0.026 0.001 0.637 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Mauritius 0.620 0.015 0.001 0.723 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Solomon Islands 0.652 0.250 0.001 0.117 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Switzerland 0.865 0.563 0.001 0.008 0.001 Improvement Very.Strong
Belgium 0.867 0.700 0.001 0.001 0.001 Improvement Very.Strong
Sierra Leone 0.609 0.117 0.001 0.302 0.001 No.Trend Insignificant
Kuwait 0.442 0.337 0.002 0.061 0.002 Improvement Medium
Dominican Republic 0.713 0.018 0.002 0.696 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Gabon 0.586 0.054 0.002 0.490 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Mexico 0.585 0.079 0.002 0.404 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Afghanistan 0.540 0.034 0.002 0.588 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Togo 0.575 0.136 0.002 0.265 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Laos 0.217 0.154 0.002 0.233 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Trinidad and Tobago 0.674 0.342 0.002 0.059 0.002 Improvement Medium
Portugal 0.850 0.108 0.002 0.324 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Central African Republic 0.549 0.033 0.002 0.595 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Israel 0.690 0.088 0.002 0.375 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Italy 0.800 0.159 0.002 0.224 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
DR Congo 0.503 0.141 0.002 0.254 0.002 No.Trend Insignificant
Iraq 0.462 0.258 0.003 0.111 0.003 No.Trend Insignificant
United Kingdom 0.794 0.088 0.003 0.376 0.003 No.Trend Insignificant
Haiti 0.585 0.308 0.003 0.077 0.003 Improvement Low
Barbados 0.747 0.515 0.003 0.013 0.003 Improvement Strong
New Zealand 0.846 0.203 0.003 0.165 0.003 No.Trend Insignificant
Zimbabwe 0.462 0.079 0.003 0.401 0.003 No.Trend Insignificant
Iran 0.372 0.412 0.003 0.033 0.003 Improvement Strong
Canada 0.826 0.460 0.004 0.022 0.004 Improvement Strong
Peru 0.739 0.690 0.004 0.002 0.004 Improvement Very.Strong
Argentina 0.821 0.146 0.004 0.246 0.004 No.Trend Insignificant
Senegal 0.700 0.469 0.004 0.020 0.004 Improvement Strong
North Macedonia 0.618 0.189 0.005 0.182 0.005 No.Trend Insignificant
Palestine 0.488 0.557 0.005 0.008 0.005 Improvement Very.Strong
Eritrea 0.179 0.381 0.005 0.043 0.005 Improvement Strong
Turkmenistan 0.233 0.616 0.005 0.004 0.005 Improvement Very.Strong
Morocco 0.507 0.357 0.005 0.052 0.005 Improvement Medium
South Korea 0.706 0.142 0.007 0.253 0.007 No.Trend Insignificant
Oman 0.382 0.808 0.007 0.000 0.007 Improvement Very.Strong
Malaysia 0.479 0.462 0.007 0.021 0.007 Improvement Strong
Cuba 0.254 0.781 0.008 0.000 0.008 Improvement Very.Strong
Jamaica 0.793 0.427 0.009 0.029 0.009 Improvement Strong
Guinea-Bissau 0.567 0.814 0.010 0.000 0.010 Improvement Very.Strong
Tunisia 0.636 0.201 0.010 0.167 0.010 No.Trend Insignificant
Libya 0.492 0.134 0.011 0.267 0.011 No.Trend Insignificant
Armenia 0.654 0.741 0.012 0.001 0.012 Improvement Very.Strong
Ethiopia 0.507 0.464 0.013 0.021 0.013 Improvement Strong
Sudan 0.505 0.344 0.013 0.058 0.013 Improvement Medium
Sri Lanka 0.496 0.467 0.014 0.021 0.014 Improvement Strong
Fiji 0.445 0.730 0.015 0.001 0.015 Improvement Very.Strong
Ecuador 0.715 0.524 0.015 0.012 0.015 Improvement Strong
Malawi 0.620 0.471 0.016 0.020 0.016 Improvement Strong
Georgia 0.681 0.466 0.016 0.021 0.016 Improvement Strong
Myanmar 0.534 0.831 0.019 0.000 0.019 Improvement Very.Strong
Uzbekistan 0.409 0.861 0.022 0.000 0.022 Improvement Very.Strong
Gambia 0.652 0.642 0.039 0.003 0.039 Improvement Very.Strong